Bayern Munich’s road to UEFA Champions League glory will become more predictable beginning 2024/25

Bayern Munich’s road to UEFA Champions League glory will become more predictable beginning 2024/25 | Olympicsporty

Bayern Munich, which has gone undefeated in the UEFA Champions League group stage in recent years, may cut a "easier" path to the final by performing well in the group stage. But why is it the case?

The Champions League draw is about to start mirroring tennis! Let’s look at it step by step:

Group stages

The number of teams in the group stage will be expanded from 32 to 36. Each team will play a total of eight matches, four at home and four away. To my understanding, the eight matches will be against eight different opponents. The teams will then be organized in a league table. Teams ranked between first and eighth, inclusive, will qualify for the knockout stages.

Who wants the four extra teams in the group stage?

·       Two of the four available places will go to teams from the countries that performed best in European competition (my understanding is that for example if clubs from Germany and Spain are the best during one season, the following season, both countries would get an extra place in the Champions League.

·       Now the next place would go to the team that finished in third place in the fifth best European league. At the moment, that team has to get through the qualification.

·       The next team will enter through the “Champions Path”, UEFA’s name for the qualifiers that include league champions who do not qualify directly for the group stage. (This is NOT the same as the play-off rounds for non-Champions League teams – remember Bayern came through the qualification against FC Zurich in 2011/12.) Normally four teams join the group stage through this road; from 2024/25, the number will increase to five.

What about the teams ranked below eighth? Teams ranked 25 and below are automatically eliminated from Europe in total. This means that the teams are between nine and 24 inclusive. What happens to them?

KNOCKOUT PLAYOFF ROUND

UEFA, on the other hand, is yet to make a decision. What we do know is that the teams placed seventh through sixteenth will be seeded, while those ranked lower will not. Each seeded team will face a non-seeded club for a spot in the last 16, meaning a team ranked between 17th and 24th on the initial table.

Each of these ties will be resolved, and the winner of each of these rounds will advance to the next round, resulting in a total of 16 teams in the competition.

Let us illustrate in a system where best plays worst, second best plays second worst and so on; Let’s first create a ranking system with teams from ninth to number 24:

9. Borussia Dortmund
10. Tottenham Hotspur
11. Juventus
12. Sevilla
13. Atletico Madrid
14. PSG
15. FC Basel
16. Marseille
17. RB Leipzig
18. Trabzonspor
19. Bayer Leverkusen
20. Small
21. Galatasaray
22. AS Monaco
23. Dynamo Kyiv
24. Arsenal (let me get this!)

The draw for the playoff round with knockout will be as follows:

1.    Borussia Dortmund vs. Arsenal (wins the seed in ninth place)

2.    Tottenham Hotspur vs. Dynamo Kyiv (wins the seed in tenth place)

3.    Juventus vs. Monaco (wins the eleventh seed)

4.    Sevilla vs. Galatasaray (winner in twelfth place)

5.    Atletico Madrid vs. Small (wins seed thirteenth)

6.    Bayer Leverkusen vs. PSG (wins the seed fourteenth)

7.    Basel vs. Trabzonspor (wins the seed fifteenth)

8.    Marseille vs. Leipzig (wins the seventeenth seed)

I took a liberty here. For example, even though Arsenal were ranked 24th, I said they would be ranked 16th if they were to win a draw. However, UEFA has not decided how to rank teams ranked 17th to 24th that win matches at this stage.

KNOCKOUT PHASE – TENNIS TIME!

Now we come to the real knockout stage. There will be NO more national protection. But due to the way the bands will work, it may be unlikely that top clubs will meet each other. The teams ranked 1 and 2 from the group stage will be placed in opposite halves of the draw so that they cannot face each other before the final. Essentially, the 16 teams will be divided into two draws, each with eight teams; for its sake let us call one half the upper half and the other the lower half.

What now? Let’s do this part via an illustration

The original ranking for example:

1. Bayern Munich
2. AC Milan
3. Real Madrid
4. Inter Milan
5. Chelsea
6. Manchester City
7. Liverpool
8. Eintracht Frankfurt
9. Dortmund
10. Spurs
11. Juventus
12. Sevilla
13. Atletico
14. PSG
15. Basel
16. Leipzig

Then the upper half will consist of the following bands:

1. Bayern Munich vs. Leipzig (1 vs. 16)
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Dortmund (8 vs. 9)
Inter Milan vs. Atletico (4 vs. 13)
4. Chelsea vs. Sevilla (5 vs. 12)

The lower half will be as follows:

1. AC Milan vs. Basel (2 vs. 15)
2. Liverpool vs. Spurs (7 vs. 10)
Real Madrid vs. PSG (3 vs. 14)
4. Manchester City vs. Juventus (6 vs. 11)

QUARTERFINAL TIME!

Let’s pick winners from the upper and lower halves!

Upper half: Bayern Munich, Frankfurt, Inter, Chelsea
Lower half: Milan, Spurs, Real Madrid, Man City

Upper Half Matches:

1.    Bayern Munich vs. Frankfurt (1 vs. 8)

2.    Inter vs. Chelsea (4 vs. 5)

Lower half matches:

1.    Real Madrid vs. Man City (3 vs. 6)

2.    Milan vs. Spurs (2 vs. 10)

SEMIFINALS AND FINALS

1.    Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea (1 vs. 4) [I promise this was not intentional]

2.    Real Madrid vs. Spurs (3 vs. 10)

THOUGHTS OF ENLARGED EUROPEAN COMPETITION

I watched the UEFA Europa Conference League final between Rome and Feyenoord. You bet I was in tears after the final whistle when I watched the Roma players. A European trophy, at all levels, clearly means a lot. We also saw Frankfurt win a European trophy this season a team over, in the Europa League; these scenes were also emotional. Although both the Europa League and the Conference League are subordinate competitions (I tend to enjoy the Europa League more than the Champions League anyway), the teams that go far offer extra income.

Extra income means more money to buy players. Also a deep race in a competition as well as a victory can inspire further victories. Think of Frankfurt – they lost two semi-finals in recent memory in the Europa League and won a Cup before winning the Europa League. And now Filip Kostic can stay because he has Champions League football to look forward to as well.

These so-called smaller competitions give the teams a chance to win and to a certain extent level the playing field. I do not know if changing the format of the Champions League and giving more teams a chance will give a more competitive competition. The gap between the big and the small teams at that level is simply too big. But if more teams get to compete in Europe, I’m in favor. I’m curious how this will unfold.

So far, however, our Bayern Munich is not playing very well; we have a summer of rumors to look forward to.